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Most Gulf stock markets rose in early trading as investors anticipated U.S. inflation data. Economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 18 meeting, with a pause expected in late January due to inflation concerns. Oil prices increased amid expectations of rising demand from China following its announcement of looser monetary policies. Additionally, the UAE will implement a 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinationals starting in January to enhance non-oil revenue.
Swiss equities have stabilized, with financial stocks and the consumer sector showing strength, led by UBS, Logitech, and Givaudan, while Swatch and Lonza lag behind. In Japan, wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive months, driven by increased costs in food, non-ferrous metals, and plastics, prompting speculation of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December.
Japan's wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive months, driven by increased costs for food, non-ferrous metals, and plastics, prompting speculation of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. Meanwhile, the dollar has seen mixed performance against Asian currencies, losing ground to the yen but gaining slightly against the yuan and Swiss franc. The euro remains stable against the dollar while appreciating slightly against the franc.
US tariffs on China are projected to rise to 40% over the next two years, impacting China's GDP growth by 0.7 to 1 percentage point. In response, China may shift supply chains to neighboring countries and implement more aggressive economic policies, while maintaining a growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for 2025. The global economy has seen significant growth, reminiscent of the 1920s, raising concerns about the sustainability of this trend amid ongoing volatility.
Bhanu Baweja, Chief Strategist at UBS Investment Bank, indicates that India's market consolidation is ongoing, with retail investors active despite potential future declines in flows. He anticipates a stabilization in urban consumption and an improvement in rural spending, alongside a possible loosening of fiscal policies. Baweja also highlights the risks posed by Donald Trump's potential return to power, particularly regarding tariffs that could disrupt global trade, while suggesting India may remain resilient due to its insulated economy and steady domestic demand.
The Swiss stock exchange closed down for the third consecutive day, with the SMI Index falling 1.01% to 11,642.39 points, marking its sharpest decline in nearly a month. Investor caution prevailed ahead of key economic data, including US inflation figures and upcoming rate decisions from the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank.In the market, Richemont and other economically sensitive stocks like ABB and Geberit faced declines, while Nestlé hit a new yearly low. The financial sector was impacted by discussions surrounding UBS's takeover of Credit Suisse, with several insurance companies also struggling.
The UBS Billionaire Ambitions Report 2024 reveals that the number of billionaires has stagnated since 2021, despite their total wealth soaring to $14 trillion. Economic challenges, particularly in China, and rising tax burdens are prompting many billionaires to relocate, with Switzerland, the UAE, and Singapore being popular destinations. As geopolitical tensions rise, risk-taking billionaires are expected to drive advancements in generative AI and renewable energy, influenced by upcoming political changes in the U.S.
U.S. stocks opened mixed as investors awaited key inflation data and a European Central Bank meeting. The dollar rose 0.2%, while oil prices fluctuated amid geopolitical tensions in Syria. Small business confidence reached a 3.5-year high, boosting market sentiment.
EFG anticipates resilient global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, despite challenges such as international trade tensions, structural weaknesses in China, and high government deficits. The BRICS nations are expected to drive 50% of global GDP growth, while a shift towards job creation will emerge as inflation stabilizes. Additionally, advancements in generative AI and a potential nuclear renaissance may reshape energy demands, presenting significant investment opportunities, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector and emerging markets.
Xi Jinping has reaffirmed China's commitment to achieving a 5% GDP growth target this year, positioning the country as a key driver of global economic expansion. Following a shift in monetary policy aimed at addressing weak consumption and deflation, Chinese stocks saw initial gains, while bond yields hit record lows. As trade data reveals a decline in imports and modest export growth, investors await further government measures to stimulate domestic demand amid ongoing economic challenges.

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